on Mexico's July 2003 elections

Results -- A Congress Further Divided:  July 6 elections shook up Mexico's Congress in the first major Federal election since July 2000's historic Presidential vote for Vicente Fox.  Increased representation for the PRI in the equivalent to the U.S. House of Representatives (Cámara de Diputados), as well as in many state legislatures and governorships;  major losses for PAN congressional candidates, with some wins in governor races;  and reinforced dominance of the PRD in the Federal District Assembly (the local congress for D.F.), as well as doubling of congressional representation -- all early results for these three major parties.

Up For Vote:  Sunday's election will be an important test for all three of Mexico's major political parties (PAN, PRI, and PRD), as well as for the final three years of the Fox Administration.  For the first time since the historic, July 2000 election of President Vicente Fox, voters will choose Federal Congressional representatives (Diputados Federales) -- in this case, all 500 seats are up for vote (300 seats through popular vote, another 200 seats through proportional representation).  In addition, six states will elect governors, state assemblies and municipal representatives (Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Sonora); two states will elect municipal representatives and state assemblies (Guanajuato and Morelos);  and Federal District (DF) residents will elect representatives for their Legislative Assembly and local delegations.

June 2003 Congressional Composition:  Currently, the PRI holds a slim majority of 208 seats, the PAN has 205 seats, the PRD has 54 seats, and the PVEM (Green Party) has 17.  Other parties (including the Workers Party [PT], Nationalist Society Party [PSN], and several others) hold the remaning 16 seats.

Predictions of PAN Losses...:  Expect tight races for Congressional seats primarily between the PAN and the PRI (and/or it's coalition ally in more than 90 Congressional races, the PVEM [Green Party]).  PAN party leaders are predicting losses of 10-20 total seats in Congress, as well as losing the governor's seat of PAN-stronghold, Nuevo León (and several major municipalities of that state) to PRI candidates.  Other analysts predict PAN losses of as many as 30 congressional seats (including those gained by proportional representation).

...PRI Losses, Some Gains, and PRD Growth:  The PRI may lose the governorship in the longtime priísta state of Campeche (somewhat offsetting the Nuevo León gains).  Expect the PRD to pick up at least 25-40 additional Congressional seats (from both the PRI and the PAN).  Very close races are expected for state and municipal positions in Sonora (PRI vs. PAN), and for some state and local elections in Fox's home state of Guanajuato.

Lessons from EdoMex:  March 9th elections in Mexico state (Estado de México, or EdoMex) may provide several insights into July 6:

	29% fewer people voted in 2003 than in 2000 in EdoMex -- the "efecto Fox" ("Fox effect") was not present during the state's recent elections.  Low voter turnout is expected, particularly in states without races for the state governor (such as Baja California, Chihuahua, and Coahuila).
	PAN tended to dominate high-population cities (with some gains by PRD, too), while losing ground to PRI/PVEM coalition in less urban areas.
	PRD tended to gain in regions closer to the DF metropolitan region, and expanded their credibility among voters.
	Evidence of vote-buying, the actual stealing of ballot boxes (shown live on T.V. news), and efforts to both intimidate and/or protect voter's rights were all present in the March 2003 elections...expect similar accusations from all parties during the July 6 vote.

"volante" from EdoMex elections

A Divided Congress...Again:  Although the number of smaller parties is expected to decrease as a result of Sunday's vote (except for possibly the PVEM), and the number of seats held by the three major parties (PRI, PAN, PRD) will change, a futher-divided Congress is almost inevitable.  As such, Fox Administration proposals during the three remaining years will continue to be challenged, particularly in the lead up to additional 2004 state elections, and the 2006 presidential elections.

Dry Weekend:  American visitors to Mexico during the long, hot Fourth of July weekend may be in for a surprise -- starting Saturday (the day before elections) and through Sunday, the sale of alcoholic beverages is prohibited throughout the country for reasons related to the "ley seca" -- "dry law".  Tourists visiting Mexico should BYOT ("bring your own tequila")...

2006 -- Positioning for the Presidency:  Already, major political figures -- including Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas (PRD), Roberto Madrazo (PRI), Santiago Creel (PAN), and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (PRD), among others -- are beginning to position themselves for the 2006 elections.  Expect major party challenges within the PRI and the PRD during the coming two years.

Predictions for 2004...in the U.S.:  Unrelated to Mexico's elections (but tied directly to the U.S. election cycle), key Republican and Democrat representatives have recently signaled new hope for the failed 2001 immigration initiatives between Bush and Fox.  Comments within the past four weeks by Secretary of State Colin Powell, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Tony Garza, and New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson all indicate political interest in reviving some form of immigration discussions with Mexico.  As the 2004 Presidential election season takes shape in the U.S., CBA predicts that both major parties will attempt to gain favor with "hispanic" voters by proposing and passing an immigration accord by mid-2004.  This could be especially important for key electoral states of California, Texas and Florida.